Small signals are early warnings.

Large failures rarely appear out of nowhere. They are often preceded by a series of small signals, a chain of near misses, a pattern of minor deviations. These signals are easy to dismiss in the moment, but in retrospect, they are often the clearest early warnings of a larger problem.

The challenge is to see these signals for what they are. To treat them not as isolated incidents, but as data points in a larger trend. To resist the urge to explain them away, and instead to ask: “What might this be an indicator of?”

This requires a culture of vigilance. It requires a willingness to listen to the quiet voices of dissent, to pay attention to the metrics that are just slightly off, to investigate the anomalies that seem harmless.

What this changes in practice: When you see a small problem, don’t just fix it. Ask why it happened. Look for the systemic issue that allowed it to occur.